Brian's Oscar Predictions for 2009

At first glance, this year's Oscars, which air this Sunday at 7:00 p.m. on ABC, seem more predictable than any year I can remember. And for that reason, we should be prepared for anything. I think everything will go, more or less, as expected, but a tiny bit of suspicion set in when the nominations were announced. Surprises popped up everywhere. Here is my quick ranking of the most notable.
10. No screenplay nod for 500 Days of Summer
9. Anvil, Capitalism: A Love Story and This Is It missing out on best documentary
8. Maggie Gyllenhaal for supporting actress
7. Paris 36 for original song
6. Il Divo for makeup
5. In the Loop for adapted screenplay
4. The Secret of Kells for animated feature
3. Invictus not nominated for best picture
2. Nothing for Where the Wild Things Are
1. And the most jaw-dropping surprise of them all! The Blind Side for best picture. What?!

The Blind Side was the ultimate opportunist. The only reason it happened is because the Academy thought it would be cute to try nominating 10 films for best picture instead of the usual five which has worked since 1944. I don't mind that they gave the 10 nominee thing a shot, but I hope they realize it's officially a horrible idea and go back to five next year. Where the Wild Things Are leads the way of the snubbed films. It could have easily been nominated in four or five categories (costume design, visual effects, cinematography, etc.). Though they weren't necessarily surprises, I would have liked to see Michael Stuhlbarg, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Julianne Moore get nominated, as well as Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs getting a nod for animated feature.
Well enough of what could have been. I was able to see 46 of the 58 nominated films and 109 out of 121 total nominees. And once again I finished every category except documentary (in which I saw two), foreign language (in which I saw one) and documentary short subject (in which I saw none). So without further ado here are my predictions for the 82nd annual Academy Awards hosted by Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin. As usual I will give you my prediction in every category as well as my opinion in the categories I finished. Enjoy!

Best Picture

The big award will go to The Hurt Locker. It's amazing how far this film has come. It made about $19 million worldwide, which will easily make it one of the lowest-grossing best pictures of all time, and it came out in June which is usually a major disadvantage. But somehow it won the top prize from the directors guild, the producers guild, the writers guild and the editors guild which, if the past tells us anything, means it's already won. As you know by now, I'm hoping Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds will pull out a win, and while it's still possible, it likely won't happen. Unfortunately if The Hurt Locker doesn't take it, Avatar probably will. And I can't continue on until I specify how little love I have for Avatar. Yes, it's quite a sight to behold and it should win for visual effects, but stealing the plot of Pocahontas and stretching it to nearly three hours just doesn't work with me.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow will make history becoming the first woman to win best director for her work on The Hurt Locker. Even though best picture could still plausibly go to any of three movies, Bigelow pretty much has this one locked up either way. The Academy seems ready to give a woman this award and I am certainly not against it, though, surprise, surprise, I want Tarantino to win. Plus, I hope his "king of the world" speech will help James Cameron (Bigelow's ex-husband by the way) never win this award again.

Best Actor

The awesome Jeff Bridges will get his Oscar after four failed attempts. It's not his best performance, nor is it an original one, but the Academy loves giving respectable actors life-time achievement awards.  So he'll win this one more for his great body of work than his good performance in Crazy Heart. I like Bridges, and I'm happy for him, but the best of the five choices is Colin Firth in A Single Man.

Best Actress
Oh, boy. This is interesting. It looks amazingly like Sandra Bullock will steal this one. Hey, I like Sandra Bullock as much as the next guy (just ask 14-year-old Brian who had her picture in his locker freshman year) but she shouldn't win an Oscar this year, or any year for that matter. Is she good in The Blind Side? Yes, but it's not a challenging role and it lacks that great scene Oscar-winning performances usually have. If you watch her talk about being nominated, she seems to be embarrased that she's the favorite. Even she knows she shouldn't win. Carey Mulligan in An Education has the best performance of the bunch, but I hope Meryl Streep wins her first Oscar since 1982. Yeah she has the most nominations ever (16) but she also has the most losses ever (13 so far). So do me a favor and cheer on the Streeper.

Best Supporting Actor

This appears to be a lock. Christoph Waltz, an unknown in America, builds SS Col. Hans Landa into easily one of the greatest villains in movie history. (Interesting side note: Me and my buddy Matt noticed that if Waltz wins, that'll make three years in a row a villain has won the supporting actor prize. Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men and Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight won the last two years.) Waltz is absolutely perfect in the role and he should be taking the little golden guy back home to Austria. Christopher Plummer for The Last Station could swipe this from Waltz's grasp if the Oscar voters want to award him for a great career much like they awarded Jack Palance, Martin Landau, Don Ameche, George Burns, Alan Arkin or James Coburn in this category before.

Best Supporting Actress

Surprisingly, the biggest lock of the night comes from an actress who's resume includes performances in "Soul Plane," Beerfest, Phat Girlz and three episodes of "Moesha." But all jokes aside, Mo'Nique totally tears it up in Precious. She is absolutely incredible! She portrays possibly the worst parent in movie history and her desperate, sympathy-seeking monologue near the end of the film is one of the most well acted scenes in any movie this year. Mo'Nique might never get here again, but she deserves to win this time.

Best Picture
Will win - The Hurt Locker
Should win - Inglourious Basterds



Best Director
Will win - Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
Should win - Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds



Best Actor
Will win: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
Should win: Colin Firth in A Single Man



Best Actress
Will win: Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Should win: Carey Mulligan in An Education



Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
Should win: Waltz

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Mo'Nique in Precious
Should win: Mo'Nique

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker
Should win: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air
Should win: Reitman and Turner

Best Animated Feature: Up
Should win: Up

Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Should win: The White Ribbon



Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Should win: Avatar (The one award this movie deserves)



Best Art Direction: Avatar
Should win: Nine



Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Should win: Coco Before Chanel


Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Should win: Inglourious Basterds



Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Should win: Inglourious Basterds



Best Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
Should win: Up



Best Makeup: Star Trek
Should win: Star Trek



Best Original Score: Up
Should win: Up



Best Original Song: "Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart
Should win: There were two songs in Crazy Heart I enjoyed more than "Weary Kind" as well as a couple from Nine I liked more than "Take it All." But of the nominees, I liked "Lion de Paname" from the little known Paris 36.



Best Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Should win: A Matter of Loaf and Death You can't beat Wallace and Gromit.



Best Live Action Short: The Door
Should win: Miracle Fish



Best Documentary: The Cove



Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon



Best Documentary Short Subject: The Last Truck: The Closing of a GM Plant



Thanks for reading and enjoy the ceremony. I will be posting my 100 favorite films of the 2000s in the near future. So check it out.