Brian's Oscar Predictions for the 84th Annual Academy Awards

The Grammys have passed. The Globes have passed. Now it's Oscar's turn. The final major awards show of the season, the 84th Annual Academy Awards, will air at 6 p.m. central Sunday on ABC. For the ninth time Billy Crystal will host and will likely amaze us with a song and dance number or two. If it weren't for Crystal I probably wouldn't be as excited about the show. At one point I thought this year was going to be very unpredictable. There still will be surprises, but likely not in the major categories.

Before I begin my predictions, I thought I'd take a minute to shed some light on some minor awards. Not the nominees, the awards themselves. While everybody knows what the makeup and costume awards are about, most people don't know much about the sound awards or cinematography. So here's a brief description to help you in your Oscar pools:

Sound Mixing and Sound Editing: The sound editor collects and creates all of the sounds used in the film, including those recorded during production and effects created afterwards. The sound mixer then manipulates those sounds as needed adding volume and distortion as well as keeping the dialogue clean and coherent.

Art Direction: Basically it's the production and set design and the overall visual appearance of a film.

Cinematography: The cinematographer is commonly referred to as the Director of Photography. So in other words, it's simply a film's photography.

Shorts: I know everyone knows what short films are, but I thought I'd mention that a short is considered any film which is 40 minutes or shorter.

And now on to my predictions. I've done decently the last couple years getting 15 or 16 right out of 24. My goal every year is to get 20. This year I'm really aiming for it. I still perused several Oscar experts' predictions, but for a lot of the minor awards I basically just tried to guess what the majority would vote for. So, while this might lead me to my first year of 20 correct awards, it might also lead me to 10 correct awards or fewer. Whatever happens, it'll be more fun this way.

I saw as many of the films as I could. For the first time ever I got to see some of the nominees for Documentary Short. I missed one Documentary Feature (Undefeated) and one Documentary Short (God is the Bigger Elvis). And I missed three Foreign Language Films: Footnote from Israel, Monsier Lazhar from Canada and In Darkness from Poland, though the latter is in theaters now and I might check it out this weekend. I will do the usual "will win, should win" thing with the occasional mention of someone or some film that deserved a nomination. I didn't mention a "should win" in the Foreign Film category since I only saw two of the nominees.

Best Picture

The Artist

It looks to be the year of The Artist. Yes, it's hard to believe we'll have a silent, black and white Best Picture for 2011, but it's very likely going to happen. It'll be the first silent film to win Best Picture since the very first Best Picture called Wings in 1928. I adored The Artist and would be very happy to see it win. Even though I called Midnight in Paris my favorite of the year, a part of me is pulling for The Artist.

I really don't see an upset happening, but it'll either be The Help, which would be amazing since the director Tate Taylor wasn't nominated for directing, or Hugo. The other six films, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, don't really stand a chance.

Best Director

Michel Hazanivicius for The Artist

I very badly want to predict Martin Scorsese to win for Hugo, but I've tried predicting a Best Picture/Best Director split three times in the last few years and was wrong each time. And since Scorsese won in 2006 for The Departed, some voters might not want to give him another one so soon. So Hazanivicius will win for bringing his epic vision of a modern silent movie to life. He deserves to win, and he probably will. The other directors are Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris, Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life and Alexander Payne for The Descendants.

Best Actor

Jean Dujardin in The Artist

Probably the category that has made me think the most. This, of all the major awards, could be where a surprise happens. Dujardin, for his turn as a silent film star who's career plummets following the creation of talkies, has had a lot of steam recently and looks to be the favorite. He's also been a charmer when he's accepted other awards like the Screen Actor's Guild award. But the other charmer, George Clooney, has a tremendous chance of winning his second acting Oscar (he won his first for Syriana in 2005). And don't sleep on Brad Pitt, in Moneyball, who the Academy is bound to award at some point, and then there's Gary Oldman, in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, who had to wait a long time for his first nomination. Final nominee Demian Bichir (A Better Life) was a surprise nominee and is the only man who definitely won't win. It's kind of a toss up, but I'll take Dujardin for the win.

Best Actress

Viola Davis in The Help

Davis has done very well this award season. So far she's done the unthinkable; she's heading into Oscar weekend as the front runner nominated against Meryl Streep. Streep's movie The Iron Lady, didn't get as much love as The Help, but voters who want to put Streep in exclusive company joining Katharine Hepburn, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman and Walter Brennan in the three Oscar club, will vote for her in hopes of ending her 29-year winless streak. And I wouldn't be surprised if voters wanted to give six-time nominee Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) her first Oscar. Michelle Williams has a small chance of winning having played Marilyn Monroe in My Week with Marilyn. The other nominee, the youngest of the acting bunch this year at 26, is Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and she's just happy to be nominated.

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer in Beginners

I'd say it's the second biggest lock of the night in the major categories, and I couldn't be happier for Plummer who would become the oldest Oscar winning actor ever at 82. I would vote for Nick Nolte in Warrior, but completely understand why Plummer is in line to win. His character is a man in his late 70s who announces he's gay after his wife passes away. It's a very methodical and warm performance and Plummer, who received his first nomination just two years ago, is becoming better and better with age. The only possible upset would be Max von Sydow, another 82-year-old, from Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. The other nominees are Nolte, Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn and Jonah Hill in Moneyball.

Best Supporting Actress

Octavia Spencer in The Help

This is the biggest lock of the night. Spencer is the classic supporting character who steals scenes at every opportunity she gets. She's fiery and funny as a housemaid named Minny who is not one to mess with, as we find out in disgusting fashion. She's one of those actresses we see all over the place, but she's finally given a role she can do something with, and she might just get the ultimate prize for it. Her main competition is, surprisingly, Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids. She also steals scenes, but it's hard to believe the Oscar voters will get behind that performance which also has a disgusting moment. The other nominees are also three excellent performances: Berenice Bejo in The Artist, Jessica Chastain (pictured above with Spencer) in The Help and Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs.

Here are all my predictions:

Best Picture

Will win: The Artist

Should win: I called Midnight in Paris my favorite of the year, so I'd be elated if it won, but my second favorite of the year is The Artist and in this age of prequels and sequels and 3D, a silent Best Picture would be great.

Should have been nominated: Beginners, A Separation

Best Director

Will win: Michel Hazanivicius for The Artist

Should win: Hazanivicius

Should have been nominated: Steve McQueen for Shame

Original Screenplay

Will win: Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris

Should win: Allen

Should have been nominated: Mike Mills for Beginners

Adapted Screenplay

Will win: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash for The Descendants

Should win: John Logan for Hugo

Lead Actor

Will win: Jean Dujardin in The Artist

Should win: George Clooney in The Descendants

Should have been nominated: Michael Fassbender in Shame, Ryan Gosling in Drive

Lead Actress

Will win: Viola Davis in The Help

Should win: Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn

Supporting Actor

Will win: Christopher Plummer in Beginners

Should win: Nick Nolte in Warrior

Supporting Actress

Will win: Octavia Spencer in The Help

Should win: Spencer

Foreign Film

Will win: A Separation (Though there is a holocaust movie nominated called In Darkness and the Academy loves holocaust movies. I'm sticking with A Separation, but watch for In Darkness as the potential surprise)

Cinematography

Will win: The Tree of Life

Should win: The Artist

Should have been nominated: Drive (This film, though violent, has breath-taking visuals at times)

Film Editing

Will win: The Artist

Should win: The Artist

Sound Editing

Will win: Hugo

Should win: Drive

Sound Mixing

Will win: Hugo

Should win: Hugo

Visual Effects

Will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Should win: Hugo

Should have been nominated: Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

Art Direction

Will win: Hugo

Should win: Hugo

Costume Design

Will win: The Artist

Should win: The Artist

Makeup

Will win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (I think the work in The Iron Lady and Albert Nobbs is similar, so they'll split giving Potter its first Oscar in franchise history)

Should win: Harry Potter

Animated Feature

Will win: Rango

Should win: A Cat in Paris

Animated Short

Will win: A Morning Stroll

Should win: La Luna (Yes it's Pixar, but it's honestly the only nominee I liked. I thought it was a disappointing batch of nominees this year)

Live Action Short

Will win: Raju

Should win: The Shore (It's absolutely delightful and worth a viewing if you can find it)

Documentary Feature

Will win: Undefeated (The only one I haven't seen, yet I think it'll win)

Should win: Of the four I have seen I like Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Documentary Short

Will win: Saving Face

Should win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Original Song

Will win: "Man or Muppet" from The Muppets

Should win: "Man or Muppet"

Should have been nominated: "Life's a Happy Song" or "Me Party" from The Muppets

Original Score

Will win: The Artist

Should win: The Artist

Should have been nominated: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

And there you have it. Feel free to laugh at me if I do horribly.

Enjoy the show!