Brian's Predictions for the 85th Academy Awards

A year loaded with good movies means hard times for us Oscar guessers. This has go to be one of the most unpredictable years in recent memory. The voters were certainly not following any rules when filling out their nominations, so it stands to reason the winners won't be obvious in most categories. We'll find out for sure this Sunday at 7 p.m. on ABC with host Seth MacFarlane (pictured above).

The first crazy thing I noticed was in the Best Picture category. A few years ago, they use to have only five nominees. Now that they have more than that, I like to try and guess which five would have made it. First thought is Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are out. But then you look over at the Best Director nominees and both Michael Haneke (Amour) and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) appear. And most notably, a certain Ben Affleck missed out for his work on Argo. Strange things a happening indeed.

Before I begin my predictions, I'd like to point out some notables I noticed when perusing the nominees.

~16 of the 20 acting nominees have been nominated before (only Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Emmanuelle Riva and Quvenzhane Wallis are first timers)

Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"

~Nine of those have won before (including all five Supporting Actor nominees) and four of them have won twice

~Up to three of those four people can join a small group of actors with three acting Oscars (Daniel Day-Lewis or Denzel Washington (competing against each other), Robert DeNiro and Sally Field. They would join Walter Brennan, Ingrid Bergman, Jack Nicholson, Katharine Hepburn and Meryl Streep.)

~While host Seth MacFarlane (creator of Family Guy) is a nominee for Best Song, The Simpsons also received a nomination in the Animated Short category

~At 2 hours and 49 minutes The Hobbit is the longest nominee in any category this year

~At just under 2 minutes Fresh Guacamole is the shortest

~It surprises no one that Adele performed a nominee for Best Song, but it might surprise you to find out that Scarlett Johansson did as well for the glacier doc Chasing Ice

I was able to catch all but five nominees this year. I missed out on four of the foreign language nominees and one documentary feature. As usual, I'll give a "will win," "should win" and in some cases a "should have been nominated." I'll only predict the winner for Foreign Language Film since I've only seen one, likely the winner.

And now to the nominees. I'd like to preface this by saying there's a good chance I score an ultimate low this year. Just too many factors and variables to weigh. I'll have fun either way though.

Best Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

The craziest story of the year is that Argo will probably win this award without its director Ben Affleck getting nominated. The last time that has happened was in 1989 when Driving Miss Daisy won but director Bruce Beresford missed out on being nominated. I'll be rooting for Life of Pi, but Lincoln has a better shot if Argo can't pull it off.

Best Director

Michael Haneke (Amour)

Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

This is really tricky since Argo is expected to win Best Picture. Most people are pegging Steven Spielberg for Lincoln as the favorite, but I can't see voters being so willing to give someone a third win (he's won previously for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan) when other nominees haven't won once yet. I was originally going to guess a big upset and go with Haneke, but I've decided to go with my favorite of the bunch, Ang Lee. Life of Pi is such a marvel in technical achievements, many may be willing to give him his second Oscar in this category (his first was for Brokeback Mountain). But honestly, the only winner that would really surprise me is Zeitlin. I think the other four all have a legit shot at taking the golden guy home. If the actors vote strong, Russell will win. If folks don't count past wins, Spielberg will win. If people want to award the best overall achievement in directing, Lee will win. And if voters like patient and intimate shots, Haneke will win. The last thing I'll say is if Spielberg does win, then I think Lincoln will win Best Picture.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln

Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix in The Master

Denzel Washington in Flight

Biggest lock of the night by far goes to Daniel Day-Lewis who will scoop up his third Oscar, all in this category (he's already won for My Left Foot and There Will Be Blood). Simply put, he gets it done. I think Joaquin Phoenix gave the best performance of the year, so I'd vote for him, but Day-Lewis has it under wraps.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva in Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts in The Impossible

This is quite a fun list of nominees, but a scary one to predict. I think Chastain had it early on, but Lawrence has been heating up lately. However, Emmanuelle Riva turns 86 on Oscar night which might be far too good of a story for voters to pass up. She really is amazing in the film and would be deserving. She would beat last year's Best Supporting Actor winner Christopher Plummer by four years if she were to win. He was 82 at the ceremony last year. Little Quvenzhane Wallis won't win, but it's phenomenal that she got nominated. She's the whole movie and it's probably the best thing that happened when the nominees were announced. At 9, she is the youngest Best Actress nominee ever. I like Watts the most, but I'm going with Riva.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin in Argo

Robert DeNiro in Silver Linings Playbook

Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Master

Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln

Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained

Here's another category that could go to almost anyone, except probably Arkin. As mentioned before all five men have won before, and only Hoffman hasn't won in this category yet. I think Jones and DeNiro are neck and neck with Waltz staying close. I'm going with Robert DeNiro to join Day-Lewis and also win his third Oscar (his other wins are for The Godfather Part II and Raging Bull). I've heard Jones will have a hard time getting other actors' votes because he's supposedly tough to work with, so if DeNiro can't get it done, look for Christoph to Waltz in and take his second Oscar for his second Tarantino film.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams in The Master

Sally Field in Lincoln

Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables

Helen Hunt in The Sessions

Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook

I don't know what happened this year, but this is the weakest acting category I've seen in a long time. Maybe ever. Nothing against any of the nominees, but each of these performances, besides maybe Hunt who could have campaigned for lead, could have gone unnoticed in their respective movies. Weaver and Field don't steal any scenes and Adams, though great, is completely outshined by her male counterparts. Anne Hathaway will probably win for her emotional live performance of "I Dreamed a Dream." I think the folks for Beasts of the Southern Wild should have campaigned for Quvenzhane Wallis to be nominated here since she probably would have won easily.

Best Picture

Will win: Argo

Should win: Life of Pi

Should have been nominated: Searching for Sugar Man, Paranorman, Moonrise Kingdom

Best Director

Will win:  Ang Lee for Life of Pi

Should win: Lee

Should have been nominated: Is it cliche to say Ben Affleck? Fine, I'll be cliche then. Affleck should have been listed here.

Original Screenplay

Will win: Michael Haneke for Amour

Should win: Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained though I wouldn't mind Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola upsetting with a win for Moonrise Kingdom

Should have been nominated: Chris Butler for Paranorman

Adapted Screenplay

Will win: Chris Terrio for Argo

Should win: David Magee for Life of Pi

Lead Actor

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln (Monster lock)

Should win: Joaquin Phoenix in The Master

Should have been nominated: Tom Holland in The Impossible

Life of Pi

Lead Actress

Will win: Emmanuelle Riva in Amour

Should win: Naomi Watts in The Impossible

Supporting Actor

Will win: Robert DeNiro in Silver Linings Playbook

Should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Master

Supporting Actress

Will win: Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables

Should win: Amy Adams in The Master

Foreign Film

Will win: Amour

Cinematography

Will win: Life of Pi

Should win: Life of Pi

Should have been nominated: Lore

Film Editing

Will win: Argo

Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

Sound Editing

Will win: Skyfall

Should win: Skyfall

Should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

Skyfall

Sound Mixing

Will win: Skyfall

Should win: Skyfall

Should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

Visual Effects

Will win: Life of Pi (second biggest lock)

Should win: Life of Pi

Should have been nominated: The Dark Knight Rises

Production Design (Formerly called Art Direction)

Will win: Lincoln

Should win: Life of Pi

Costume Design

Will win: Anna Karenina

Should win: Lincoln

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win: Les Miserables

Should win: Les Miserables

Animated Feature

Will win: Wreck-it Ralph

Should win: Paranorman

Animated Short

Will win: Paperman

Should win: It was a good group of movies, but I have to be bias and go with Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"

Live Action Short

Will win: Henry

Should win: Death of a Shadow (a really neat concept that should be turned into a feature)

Mondays at Racine

Documentary Feature

Will win: Searching for Sugar Man though look out for the Aids doc How to Survive a Plague to steal

Should win: Of the four I have seen I like Searching for Sugar Man

Documentary Short

Will win: Mondays at Racine

Should win: Inocente

Original Song

Will win: "Skyfall" from Skyfall

Should win: Adele with Skyfall

Original Score

Will win: Life of Pi

Should win: Life of Pi

And there you have it. I felt my confidence fading quickly as I made some final decisions, but I'll stick with what I have now. Again, feel free to make fun of me if I bomb like crazy.